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Want to buy a home with a big potential return? Try East New York, study says - Crain's New York Business

New York is famously home to some of the most expensive properties in the world, but owners aiming to see the value of their asset grow the most should look far away from the glamour of Billionaires Row or Park Avenue.

East Brooklyn—including Crown Heights, Bedford-Stuyvesant, East New York and Bushwick—is the New York City submarket where homes have appreciated the most in recent years, according to a new study from StreetEasy. The analysis, which looked at homes purchased before last year and sold between 2017 and 2019, found that owners who held onto their properties for five to 10 years doubled their investments, with a median return of 99%, or about $414,000.

Meanwhile, although the Upper East Side has spent generations as one of the city’s toniest neighborhoods, sellers there saw the lowest returns on their properties. The median return after five to 10 years was 31%, or roughly $248,000, according to StreetEasy.

Upper East Side sellers who stayed in their home for less than five years saw an even lower median return, 18%, compared with 86% for East Brooklyn sellers who stayed in their home for the same amount of time—the highest median return throughout the city.

The neighborhood where the greatest share of homes sold at a loss between 2017 and 2019 was the Rockaways, where 17% of sellers lost money on their home, according to the study. The Upper East Side, Midtown and South Queens, which includes Jamaica, Ozone Park and Richmond Hill, tied for second place, as 11% of homes sold at a loss during the same period.

Contrastingly, only 2% of homeowners in Brooklyn’s Park Slope, Prospect Heights and Prospect Lefferts Gardens sold their property at a loss from 2017 to 2019, the study says. Sellers in Upper Manhattan werent far behind, with just 3% selling at a loss.

The StreetEasy study comes with some caveats, most notably that the Covid-19 pandemic has almost completely upended the city’s real estate market. Prices are starting to fall in Queens and continuing to fall in Manhattan, where record high levels of inventory could prevent sellers from seeing the same types of returns they could have expected a few months ago.

Brooklyn was still experiencing more buying activity as recently as August, particularly for less expensive properties, so the outlook there appears brighter, StreetEasy said.

Several trends are likely due to the citys broader economic climate, the study says. Its analysis of homes that people owned for more than 10 years—which encompassed several purchased during the market highs prior to the 2009 financial crisis—found that returns among the group were not higher across the board than returns for sellers who held on to their property for five to 10 years.

That likely was because owners who bought before 2009 did so right before a major decline in the market, while owners in the five- to 10-year group bought just after a major decline, according to StreetEasy.

It is better overall for homeowners to sell when they are ready rather than when they think the market is peaking, as economic trends are often clearer in retrospect than in real time, StreetEasy economist Nancy Wu pointed out.

“If you need to sell, sell,” Wu said. “Holding on to a home for longer than you want to in the hopes of greater appreciation just means sunk costs.”

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Want to buy a home with a big potential return? Try East New York, study says - Crain's New York Business
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